A casual guide to the Israeli elections (with a Yemenite twist)

Slightly off topic for my usual visitors but should be a good read if you take an interest in politics, Israel, or are really really bored.

The Israeli elections on Tuesday are looking like the most unpredictable and fractious in recent years. All the parties are basically just bitching at each other and nobody is getting anywhere near a majority. There are 120 seats up for grabs so any party/coalition of parties need 61 seats to be in government.

With 10 (TEN!!!!) parties looking likely to achieve the threshold needed to get parliamentary seats (if you don’t get at least 3.25% of the vote, you don’t get any seats) the whole thing is like a lopsided jigsaw puzzle with a terrible picture on it like a seashell or a button. It is perhaps the coalition building that will come after the elections which will be of most interest i.e. all of this election voting analysis is completely pointless but hey, Monday nights are boring, kudos for them having the election on a Tuesday.

Anyway, loads of articles have been written about the elections, but I think this one is the best because luckily for you I have access to a whole load of Israelis and have analysed their voting intentions in what is possibly the least accurate polling data that has ever been collected. I just asked thirty of them who they are voting for and what they think of the whole dastardly situation and have then collated and paraphrased everything they said into this very casual guide.

They range from secular Israelis living in central Tel Aviv to ultra-orthodox Yemenites who live in small coastal villages and only socialise with other ultra-orthodox Yemenites. They range from students in their early 20s to retirees in their late 60s who were actually born IN Yemen and flew to Israel on a magic carpet. Almost all are Yemenite, a couple are not. They all identify as Israeli and have lived their whole lives in Israel (votes out of 30 are in brackets).

Likud (9)

Who are they: The incumbent party would be considered right wing in the UK and are still considered pretty right in Israel, but really when compared to some of the others (keep reading) they seem at Gareth Bale levels of left wing.
Leader: Benjamin Netanyahu, who is called “Bibi” by both his supporters and all the other people who absolutely hate him.This guy is genuine marmite, he’s like liquorice, or bananas, or anything else you can think of that divides opinion brutally. He’s old and he’s old school and the election has really developed into a sort of ‘cult of the personality’ situation where some are saying this election is more like a referendum on Bibi which seems frankly ridiculous, probably because all our politicians have about as much personality as a traffic cone. I will be calling them Bibi’s Boys because there is only one woman in their first 20 candidates which is embarrassing and outdated and really should be enough to lose them more votes but nobody can see past Bibi’s big fucking head to even notice.
Who’s voting for him? Basically, you know how everyone had that slightly older teacher who instilled a sense of calm reassurance into people who got bullied but came across as kind of creepy to everyone else? Bibi is that guy. Almost all of the middle aged women I polled are voting for him because they “feel he will take care of us”. This isn’t a gender statement, it’s the result of my poll. He does have a very strong comb over but ultimately that’s not enough for me.

Zionist Camp (5)

Who are they: The main opposition to Bibi’s Boys and the combination of Labour and “Hatnua”. They gave themselves an inappropriately right-wing name considering they are really centre-left, in a bid to steal some voters from Bibi’s Boys. It remains to be seen if this will work and although they are polling slightly higher, they also alienated a lot of people by pandering to the right instead of sticking to their guns. Terrible. Lucky for us that British political parties have far more integrity.
Leaders: Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak “Bougie” Herzog, who seems to have gotten jealous of Bibi’s juvenile nickname and therefore crafted one of his own. I am unsure as yet why David Cameron or Ed Miliband haven’t attempted this but I can only see it succeeding. These two would share the role of Prime Minister if voted in. My conversations generally seem to conclude that Livni is a pretty solid gal but Herzog keeps coming under fire for appearing weak or pathetic or “a pushover to all the European countries” – I’m pretty sure San Marino and Liechtenstein would have something to say about that.
Who’s voting for them? Lots of people. Anyone who wants “anything but Bibi”, any old school Labour people, anyone who is vaguely left-wing but sees a vote for the furthest left party Meretz as a waste, and a handful of youngsters who like the policies of Stav Shaffir, 4th on the list and particularly in tune with the young professionals of Tel Aviv.

Yesh Atid (0)

Who are they: Yesh Atid were the darlings of the last election two years ago, ending as the second biggest party but choosing to join the governing coalition. Yesh Atid means “there is a future” but ironically there may not be a future because their future (which is now their present) turned out pretty shit because their leader was basically tricked by Bibi (really.) and then fired by him (even more really). They are concerned with the socio-economic situation and are a little hard to pin down in terms of wing, although I can confirm they are not a plane wing, a chicken wing or a wingding.
Leader: Yair Lapid is the Philip Schofield of Israel. Everyone figured he’d shake things up but then got Bibi’d and now nobody thinks he can do much, although his haircut is literally fantastic.
Who’s voting for them? Out of 30 people I asked, zero, although the polls suggest quite a few people are. A lot of the more secular Israelis and especially those under 40 said they voted for him last time but then he didn’t do anything so now what’s the point. If that was the case in the UK I think we’d run out of politicians.

Habayit Hayehudi (6)

Who are they: “Home of the Jews” is pretty straightforward in name and translates well in nature. They reject a two state solution, want to send all non-Jews into Jordan and hate gay people. Unfortunately, they are also riding on this whole brutally honest wave and thus seem to have some sort of bizarre “at least they’re telling it like it is” following that has made them really popular.
Leader: Naftali Bennett is fairly young (40-something), very charismatic and as one Haaretz article put it today, “if Bibi is an IBM computer, Bennett is an iPhone app”. He has developed a very sleazy sounding American accent and wears his Kippah cocked slightly to the left. I am convinced he is pure evil.
Who’s voting for him? A lot of people. Quotes include “he is honest, you can’t say that about the others. I don’t trust anyone but him”, “his party doesn’t involve money and will balance the left wing”, “we agree with his political platform” and “I love how he wears his Kippah”. Ok, nobody said that. These are all sane, lovely people, and yet his party platform is incredibly aggressive and right wing. Here is one possible explanation for why he is so popular by a very open minded and liberal Tel Avivian 30-something who won’t be voting for him:
“At the beginning I wanted to vote for him, till I found out he’s not really liberal and too religiously driven. The reason he’s popular, by me also, is because it seems like he doesn’t give a fuck about criticism from the rest of the world and really wants to take care of Israeli people and Israel… he’s ex army, and really knows his shit about security, and every talk he had with the world media during the war was really spot on. I think we need a strong leader like that, if he only was more liberal…”
He has basically tricked everyone. SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING!

Kulanu (6)

Who are they: Kulanu are a new party formed about 4 months ago with only one real platform: economic reform. They are fairly centrist, have said they will join any coalition so long as they are given the finance ministry and powers over the economy. This is clever because there can be success with having just one policy area in a coalition system like Israel’s, it’s just that most one-policy parties want slightly different things like making pirate movies legal (that is, illegal downloads rather than just movies with pirates in them, although those would also be legal) or ensuring everyone has an unlimited supply of pick ‘n’ mix.
Leader: Moshe Kahlon was in Bibi’s Boys and then decided he didn’t like Bibi so off he went, then came back again because he got bored. He has a proven track record of success as Communications Minister, when he busted the corrupt mobile phone network cartels and took down some big corrupt businessmen. He only wants to be Finance Minister this time around, and will join anyone who lets him.
Who’s voting for him? Small business owners. They believe he will continue to fight corruption and help them out. Kahlon has a track record of “getting things done” and as we know from the current opinion of Yair Lapid, Israelis like efficiency in their politics (but apparently hate it on their trains, buses, administrative centres, shops and restaurants). Almost every business owner I asked is voting for him, and he looks set to be the choice of the “last minute voters” too because like Goldilocks’ porridge, he’s not too hot and not too cold. He’s juuuust right (i.e. easy cop out for people who want to vote but have no idea who for, not that I’m saying Goldilocks’ porridge choice was a cop out, no way, she tasted all those bears’ porridge before making her decision).

Joint Arab List (0)

Who are they: The three Arab parties and the Jewish-Arab Communist party have all joined together to create quite the force, polling third on the eve of the elections. Their policies, however, are vague and inconsistent, mainly because they are made up of four very different and often contrasting parties whose only real commonality is achieving more equality for Arab citizens of Israel.
Leader: Ayman Odeh, the youngest of all the party leaders, has held himself with a lot of dignity in the election interviews and debates despite being constantly criticised and harangued by some other parties and party leaders. He has brought a fresh face to the Arab parties and this could also lead to a bit of success. They have ruled out joining any coalition but could sit opposite the government and have real voting clout from within the Knesset.
Who is voting for them? Arab citizens of Israel and pretty much nobody else. Considering that these citizens make up 20% of the population, however, that could be considerable.

Shas (1)

Who are they: Ultra-orthodox Sephardi party who basically just look out for the rights of ultra-orthodox Sephardi people. Simple and effective and tend to join whoever will ensure they are heard. However, have been decimated recently with the death of their spiritual leader Ovadia Yosef and the exit of their second in command Eli Yishai.
Leader: Aryeh Deri was convicted of corruption and a bunch of other stuff that really should have discredited him forever but instead he just left for ten years then came hurtling back in with a new vigour but a similar length of beard.
Who is voting for them? Ultra-orthodox Sephardi people, surprisingly. However, they look like losing a lot of voters to Bibi’s Boys, Naftali Bennett and Eli Yishai, who have all offered credible support. Only one of my respondents is voting for Shas, an ultra-orthodox Yemenite rabbi.

Yachad (1)

Who are they: This is Eli Yishai’s offshoot party who are very similar to Shas but a bit more politically motivated – very much to the right.
Leader: Eli Yishai also has a top beard and is seen as more hard line than Deri. They clearly hate each other, and some recordings of Ovadia Yosef (who is basically still calling the shots from beyond the grave) saying he preferred Yishai means that some people will vote for him instead of Deri.
Who is voting for them? The right-er wing of the ultra-orthodox Sephardi community and also some non-Sephardis. Only one of my respondents is voting for Yachad – a 19 year old Ashkenazi student who grew up in a West Bank settlement.

United Torah Judaism (1)

Who are they: Ultra-orthodox party geared more towards fairly apolitical haredim. They don’t cause much controversy within the ranks and will probably get over the threshold with their devoted support base.
Leader: Yaakov Litzman, whose beard will absolutely dominate this election.
Who is voting for them? Haredim across the country, including Ashkenazi settlers who are less right wing and more just concerned with funding for their Yeshivot colleges and not having to go into the army. Only one of my respondents is voting for UTJ – a middle aged haredi man who grew up in the UK but has lived in Jerusalem for nearly fifteen years.

Meretz (1)

Who are they: If you have made it this far, congrats. You are probably also wondering where all the left wing parties are, well here they are, and it’s just one. Meretz support a two state solution, more rights for Arab citizens of Israel and a bunch of other things you’d associate with left wing parties in your head.
Leader: Zehava Gal-On is the leader but seems a little disorganised to me.
Who is voting for them? Left wing people, a lot of olim and not too many more. They have lost a lot of their support to Zionist Camp, who are perceived as the only realistic leftist option that can actually make a difference. Will only just squeeze over the threshold. Only one of my respondents is voting for Meretz – a totally secular Ashkenazi girl who grew up on a Kibbutz in the North.

Yisrael Beitenu (0)

Who are they: These guys should just get laughed out of town. Russian gangster party who somehow carved their way up the pecking order in the previous two elections and managed to join with Bibi’s Boys in the previous one to basically secure a disproportionate amount of influence. Luckily, their insane sensationalist right wing politics have been found out.
Leader: Avigdor Lieberman is a Russian gangster who constantly looks like he is about to either fall asleep or stab someone. He can best be summed up with his latest quote, that any Israeli Arabs who oppose the state should be “beheaded”.
Who is voting for them? Almost nobody anymore. Probably some Russians. If we’re lucky they won’t make the threshold. None of my respondents are voting for them and all have dismissed  them as corrupt idiots. IDIOTS I TELL YA.

The overriding feeling I have gotten from everyone I spoke to, however, is that they are all totally disillusioned, kind of hate everyone running and don’t trust anyone to solve their security/socio-economic/pirate film concerns.

My results are almost certainly not going to reflect reality and the whole Yemenite thing hasn’t seemed to provide any kind of consistency other than the fact they’ll all be eating Jahnun as the results come in. They are choosing the best of a bad bunch and one guy isn’t even voting because he said “none of them are worthy”.

One thing’s for sure: I am certain that if a party had “free pick ‘n’ mix for all” as its only policy, it would sweep the rest away.
Watch this space…